The last time I wrote words about Ukraine
, Putin had just finished ganking Crimea under the cover of the smoke coming from the $51-billion dollar Sochi Winter Olympics money fire. In the intervening months, things have not only gone plaid, but flannel plaid. It is a minor miracle that the conflict has remained localized.
For those that haven’t been paying attention, a pro-Russian insurgency broke out in Eastern Ukraine, specifically the provinces of Donestk and Lugansk (or Luhansk, as you would say it in Ukrainian or Southern Russian), proclaiming the Donestk and Lugansk People’s Republics, respectively. Sometime later, the two combined to form Novorossiya, after the Imperial Russian name for the region.
Your average American could hardly be faulted for not being able to find these on a map (Google Maps doesn’t count, that’s cheating); then again, your average Russian probably find these on a map prior to the start of this conflict either.
Aleksander Borodai. Yeltsin would be proud.
For an insurgency that’s supposed to be a spontaneous people’s uprising against fascist tyranny, it sure is filled with all sorts of Russians. Take the political leader of the Donetsk People’s Republic, premier Aleksander Borodai. Besides the fact that the man is CLEARLY an absolute lush, he’s also a “political consultant” from Moscow. Then there’s one of the bigger characters of the Battle of Slovyansk (this town was the insurgents’ stronghold until it was taken by the Ukrainian military) – the Russian Cossack Alexander Mozhaev (circled in the top image). Under the funny hat and unkempt beard is a felon on the lam who, hilariously enough, fled with his crew when things started going bad and has not been heard from since.
Igor Strelkov. Would you let this man give your children candy?
Of course, the biggest character of all is the military commander of the DNR, one Igor Strelkov slash Girkin. A GRU colonel with a hardon for war reenactment, the Russian Empire, a creepy mustache, and one hell of a pedosmile, Strelkov claims to have been involved in every Russian military conflict since it stopped being the USSR. A Bosnian newspaper found what it claims is a picture of him in, well, Bosnia, during the Yugoslav Wars in the early 90s. Popular uprising my ass.
To Strelkov’s credit go several summary executions carried out under a 1941 directive by Stalin that was since revoked by several governments (including the original “people’s mayor” of Slavyansk, Vyacheslav Ponomarev; incidentally, Ponomarev was actually a local), and increasingly insane orders such as a ban on profanity and the imposition of martial law in the city of Donestk, which is home to 1.5 million people. If a guy with a couple thousand men behind him at best tried to impose martial law on say, San Diego, everyone would just laugh (and then proceed to shoot back).
The cherry on top of this clusterfuck is MH-17, which was shot down by some drunken insurgent after some genius in the Russian military command decided that it would be a good idea to give some barely-trained (two years as a conscript in the Red Army in 1988-1990 doesn’t count) drunks a surface-to-air missile system. I almost want to say that they were set up with bad intelligence on purpose, because they would have to be among the top 5 idiots in the history of the world to think that an airline at cruising altitude was a valid military target. At least the Soviets shot down Korean Air Flight 007 ON PURPOSE. Then again, Iran Air 655 was an epic cockup too, and that one was carried out by actually trained personnel. Never ascribe to malice that which can be ascribed to incompetence.
Neither the US or USSR desecrated the bodies of the victims either.
We May be About to Witness Sudetenland 2.0
Despite a shaky start and continuing heavy casualties, the Ukrainian military is slowly gaining the upper hand. Most recently, they were able to cut off Donetsk from the rest of the insurgent territory (and thus the Russian supplies and arms from across the border). The UAF is gearing up for a storm of Donestk; hopefully they carry it out without resorting to Grads, Smerches, and Tochkas. Lugansk will hold on for some time still, but then there’s the $64,000 question – will Putin do it? At this point, he’s already been hit with pretty heavy sanctions from anyone that matters this side of China, and he’s starting to look increasingly weak in the eyes of the nationalists that are propping up his precious approval rating. And it’s not like anyone will do anything about it besides more sanctions (which Russia hopes to manage by trading more with China).
In terms of cold-blooded realpolitik, invading is the sensible for Putin to do (especially given that he is that kind of a bastard). He’s already screwed when it comes to the West and he’ll be screwed internally if he doesn’t act. They’ve been halfway there for weeks anyway, as Russian artillrey has been shelling Ukrainian soldiers trapped near the border since mid-July or so. The Russian army will surely crush nearly-bankrupt Ukraine’s armed forces, but not without paying a decent price in blood. Though poorly equipped, the Ukrainians have some pretty solid combat experience to their name at this point. This is, of course, the worst-case scenario, but hey look over there guys – we’ve got a bond crisis coming!