Ukraine’s Crisis: Why did Yanuk Reneg?

Vladimir Putin, Viktor Yanukovych

Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovich probably expected some anger when he decided to reneg on his word to sign an Association Agreement with the European Union, but there is no way he expected the reaction that he got. Or maybe he did, having already been on the receiving end of it nearly a decade ago during the Orange Revolution. Regardless, you know you’re dealing with a seriously pissed off people when they come out to public squares – and stay there – in late November and early December in a place like Kiev, which isn’t exactly famous for its mild winters.

Part of the reason for the anger is that President Yanukovich had promised to sign the EU AA before he didn’t. Reneging on a deal like that isn’t the sort of decision that’s made lightly.

Economic Hardball

It increasingly looks like Yanukovich changed his mind because his Russian krysha made him an offer his country couldn’t afford to refuse. Ukraine’s economy is in a sorry state, having been brutally battered during the Great Financial Crisis, and the government is danger close to running out of hard currency (something the EU is not in a position to offer) – thus staring at the abyss of devaluation. Ukraine also needs Russian gas, preferably at a discount rate – leverage Russia has shown no qualms towards using in the past — and Russia is also Ukraine’s top trading partner, accounting for just under a quarter of its exports and a fifth of its imports. In short, Ukraine is simply too dependent on Russia economically to break free of its orbit.

Given the importance of Ukraine to the success of his customs union, it’s hardly surprising that Putin decided to play some of the stiffest economic hardball despite Yanukovich being generally pro-Moscow. Without Ukraine, it’s a joke devoid of countries that matter other than Russia — Belarus brings nothing to the table, Kazakhstan has plenty of gas but no people, and Armenia is Armenia. Beyond the geopolitical implications of Ukraine falling out of Russia’s orbit, Putin simply has too much money on the line.

Eastern Provinces

Ukraine 2010 Presidential Election Map. Source: BBC (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/europe/8503177.stm)

Ukraine 2010 Presidential Election Map. Source: BBC (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/europe/8503177.stm)

Aside from the near-certain economic disaster that would have unfolded has Yanukovich tried to call Putin’s bluff, he would have also committed political suicide. His Party of Regions (Partyia Regionov) draws its power from pro-Russian provinces in the eastern and southern parts of the country (and is probably covertly supported by the Kremlin). There is no way he could survive politically if he lost the support of his base given the level of polarization in the country.

Given these two realities, it’s easy to see how Yanukovich’s hands were tied. From a politician’s point of view, he made the only choice he could.

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One thought on “Ukraine’s Crisis: Why did Yanuk Reneg?

  1. ROTHSCHILDS HIDDEN BEHIND THE PROTESTS IN UKRAINE

    1) ” Delivering a speech at the German parliament Bundestag in Berlin on November 18, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that Ukraine must take «credible steps» in order to clinch a trade agreement with the EU, «We know that reforms cannot completely be carried out in a day. We also want to support Ukraine in its reforms, with offers of cooperation, with financial means from the European Neighborhood Policy. But the conditions for this must be achieved by Ukraine itself and not just sometime, but rather now», she said. With less than two weeks to go before the agreement is due to be signed at a summit in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius, the European Union has made clear that Ukraine has not done enough to meet the conditions for a signing». ”
    http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2013/12/10/ukrainian-opposition-what-do-they-mean.html

    MERKEL IS A PUPPET OF DEUTSCHE BANK.

    ” Opposition lawmakers and German media have accused Ms. Merkel of hosting a private party at taxpayer expense for the birthday of Mr. Ackermann [FORMER CEO OF DEUTSCHE BANK], an influential but controversial figure in Germany. ”
    ” A German official confirmed that Mr. Ackermann proposed guests’ names to the chancellery. Guests included executives from big German companies such as BASF AG and Siemens AG, as well as media publishers and some leading academics.
    The dinner highlights the fact that relations between Germany’s political and business elites have long been cozy, reflecting a tradition of trying to govern the country by building a consensus with industry, banking, unions and other interest groups. ” http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125133086245062187.html

    WHO CONTROLS DEUTSCHE BANK ?
    WE CAN NOTICE RELATIONS AMONG LORD JACOB ROTHSCHILD AND DEUTSCHE BANK. https://wikispooks.com/ISGP/organisations/introduction/PEHI_Jacob_de_Rothschild_bio.htm
    DAVID HAYSEY ” HEAD OF PUBLIC EQUITIES AT RIT CAPITAL PARTNERS ” AND IN THE PAST ” DIRECTOR AT J ROTHSCHILD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, BOTH OWNED BY JACOB ROTHSCHILD, ” HAS BEEN ” MANAGING DIRECTOR AT DEUTSCHE BANK ” http://uk.linkedin.com/pub/david-haysey/1b/470/bb3
    THERE ARE ALSO LINKS AMONG EVELYN DE ROTHSCHILD AND DEUTSCHE BANK. https://wikispooks.com/ISGP/organisations/introduction/PEHI_Evelyn_de_Rothschild_bio.htm
    LYNN FORESTER DE ROTHSCHILD, THE WIFE OF EVELYN DE ROTHSCHILD, IS A DIRECTOR OF DEUTSCHE BANK.
    ” In addition, she serves as a Trustee of the ERANDA Foundation (a Rothschild family foundation), the Outward Bound Trust, the Alfred Herrhausen Society of International Dialogue of Deutsche Bank and the Global Commercial Microfinance Consortium Advisory Board of Deutsche Bank. ”
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lynn_Forester_de_Rothschild
    DEUTSCHE BANK IS CONNECTED ALSO WITH THE EDMOND DE ROTHSCHILD OWNED BY BENJAMIN DE ROTHSCHILD
    ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_de_Rothschild ) AND BY HIS WIFE ARIANE DE ROTHSCHILD ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ariane_de_Rothschild ). http://in.linkedin.com/pub/nicolas-hindi/31/912/265
    http://www.lejdd.fr/Economie/Images/Les-plus-grosses-fortunes-de-France/Benjamin-de-Rothschild-206941
    ” Benjamin de Rothschild, only son of the late Edmond de Rothschild, was a classic case of great expectations gone astray. Despite being groomed for greatness from a young age, as a teenager he skipped university and instead headed for Los Angeles with dreams of being a film producer. In LA he started taking drugs, and ended up on heroin. Meanwhile, he failed to make it into Hollywood’s charmed circle and bombed as a film-maker. ”
    http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/poor-little-rich-boys-1097744.html

    2) ” Indeed, an estimated 2,200 EU- and U.S.-funded NGOs are operating in Ukraine, some of them no doubt serving as channels of support for the rapid organization of these protests. In December 2004, NGOs in the George Soros/Gene Sharp/Oxford University/Project Democracy networks were instrumental in the Orange Revolution that overturned the first election of Yanukovych as President. ” http://larouchepac.com/node/29060

    GEORGE SOROS IS CONNECTED WITH CARLYLE AND BLACKSTONE. http://www.culturechange.org/CarlyleEmpire.html
    http://transmissionsmedia.com/the-911-illusion-part-ii-deutsche-bank-blackstone/

    WHO CONTROLS SOROS, CARLYLE AND BLACKSTONE ?
    ” Henry Kissinger’s good friend Lord JACOB ROTHSCHILD sat on Bioport owner Blackstone’s International Advisory Board. (See Corexit Linked to the Blackstone Group and Lord Jacob Rothschild) ”
    http://transmissionsmedia.com/the-911-illusion-part-ii-deutsche-bank-blackstone/
    http://beforeitsnews.com/gulf-oil-spill/2010/06/corexit-linked-to-the-blackstone-group-and-lord-jacob-rothschild-76363.html
    ” Blackstone was founded in 1985 as a mergers and acquisitions boutique by Peter G. Peterson and Stephen A. Schwarzman, who had previously worked together at Lehman Brothers, Kuhn, Loeb Inc. ” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blackstone_Group
    Peter G. Peterson ” is founding Chairman of the Peterson Institute for International Economics ” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_George_Peterson http://larouchepac.com/node/28610
    Lynn Forester de Rothschild, the wife of EVELYN DE ROTHSCHILD, is a director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. http://www.petersoninstitute.org/institute/board.cfm
    Blackstone is also related with the LCF EDMOND DE ROTHSCHILD, for example, through the person of Daniel Costa Lindo that is a M&A Analyst at Blackstone and was Private Equity Analyst at LCF Edmond de Rothschild. http://www.linkedin.com/pub/daniel-costa-lindo/32/255/543 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_de_Rothschild https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ariane_de_Rothschild

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waddesdonhttp://www.waddesdon.org.uk/ http://www.thefullwiki.org/Waddesdon_Manor http://www.thefullwiki.org/Ascott_House http://www.breathingenglishair.blogspot.fr/2012/04/ascott-house-buckinghamshire.html http://wikimapia.org/6825620/fr/Chateau-de-Pregny http://www.panoramio.com/photo/77169200

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